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(08) After the meaningless vote (from 16 January 2019)
#1
(8) After the meaningless vote
from 16 January 2019

So the MPs torpedoed the Withdrawal Agreement on 15 January 2019 and the UK is back to Brexit square one with no plan, and the Brexit clock ticking. Now WHAT? The EU27 are still waiting for the UK to explain what it actually wants. In the meantime, no-deal preparations continue.

Here is the place to debate the developments in the run-up to the B-day on 29 March 2019. You can also chew on the fallout of the meaningless vote here.

I compiled below a list of important Brexit and other dates (I am inserting updates as more news emerge).


[Image: attachment.php?aid=75]
Image URL (larger version): http://debateuncensored.co.uk/attachment.php?aid=75


[Image: attachment.php?aid=87]
Image URL (larger version): http://debateuncensored.co.uk/attachment.php?aid=87
Note: The image needs an update - the meaningless vote did in the end not happen on 11 Dec 2018 but rather on 15 Jan 2019.




News update

16 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4537#pid4537
17 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4574#pid4574
18 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4626#pid4626
20 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4703#pid4703
21 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4732#pid4732
22 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4773#pid4773
23 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4825#pid4825
24 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4867#pid4867
25 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4887#pid4887
26 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4917#pid4917
28 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4981#pid4981
30 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5101#pid5101
31 January http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5188#pid5188
1 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5224#pid5224
2 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5248#pid5248
3 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5264#pid5264
4 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5296#pid5296
7 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5484#pid5484
10 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5567#pid5567
12 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5648#pid5648
14 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5741#pid5741
16 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5806#pid5806
17 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5817#pid5817
18 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5837#pid5837
19 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5878#pid5878
20 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5923#pid5923
21 February http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5936#pid5936

PM Varadkar in Brussels discussing Brexit (6 February 2019)   Exclamation  
http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5422#pid5422

Brexit  debate at the plenary session of the European Parliament (16 Jan 2019)  
with links to videos
http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4553#pid4553

Two days to the vote in HoC: Where is plan B??? (27 Jan 2019)
with links to amendments for voting on 29 Jan
http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=89&pid=4944#pid4944

The Great Brexit Debate at EPC in Brussels (28 January 2019)  Exclamation  
http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5007#pid5007

Brexit debate in the European Parliament (30 January 2019)
with links to videos
http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=5137#pid5137



Timeline

25 November (Sunday): the special EU summit (approval of the WA and the PD)

13 December (Thursday) Brexit meeting of the EU27 Council (27 PMs/presidents); EU27 preparations for no deal  


2019

1 January (Tuesday) Romania takes over the Council presidency (from Austria)

1 January (Tuesday) EU anti-tax directive comes into force

7 January (Monday) UK started no-deal chaos rehearsals with hired lorries in Kent

8 January (Tuesday) UK started a no-deal propaganda campaign

15 January (Tuesday) meaningless vote on the WA in the HoC

16 January (Wednesday) vote of no confidence in PM in HoC

16 January (Wednesday) Plenary session of the European Parliament: Brexit debate, future of Europe with Spanish PM Sanchez 

17 January (Thursday) Barnier in Portugal

20 January (Sunday) PM May to hold a conference call with her war cabinet from Chequers about Chequers plan B

21 January (Monday) UK's deadline for voting about the WA in the HoC (due to needed legislative procedures)

21 January (Monday) PM May to present plan B to HoC (after MPs torpedoed the WA)

22-25 January (Tuesday to Friday) World Economic Forum in Davos (without Trump, May and Macron)

22 January (Tuesday) signing of Aachen Treaty between Germany and France on friendship and cooperation

23 January (Wednesday) SIX YEARS since Cameron announced the Brexit referendum 

24 January (Thursday) Barnier has a meeting with Merkel in Berlin

29 January (Tuesday) HoC vote about May's plan B (the Brady amendment gets a thin majority)

30 January (Wednesday) Brexit debate in the European Parliament, Brexit also at meetings of the European Commission (no-deal measures) and Coreper

4 February (Monday) Barnier has a meeting with Mark Rutte, PM of the Netherlands, in The Hague

4 February (Monday) meeting of Eurogroup; EU-Arab League Ministerial Meeting in Brussels

5 February (Tuesday) PM May's speech about Brexit in Northern Ireland

6 February (Wednesday) PM Varadkar in Brussels re no-deal preparations; weekly meeting of the European Commission

7 February (Thursday) PM May in Brussles to explain her latest cunning plan (meetings with Juncker, Tusk, Tajani, Verhofstadt)

8 February (Friday) PM Varadkar in Belfast

8 February (Friday) PM May meets PM Varadkar in Dublin to explain her latest cunning plan (dinner)

6-8 February (Wednesday-Friday) Informal meeting of justice and home affairs ministers in Bucharest

11 February (Monday) Barnier in Luxembourg; Barclay has a meeting with Barnier in Brussels

11 February (Monday) meeting of EU27 Ad Hoc Working Party on Article 50

12 February (Tuesday) PM May gives a Brexit statement in HoC

12 February (Tuesday) meeting of Economic and Financial Affairs Council (EU tax policy, EU budget)

13 February (Wednesday) PM May's self-imposed deadline to come to HoC with a renegotiated 'deal' cancelled - moved to 27 Feb

13 February (Wednesday) start of trial Eurotunnel vs UK government (re the Shipless Pizza Company)

13 February (Wednesday) PM May speaks in HoC about Brexit progress

13 February (Wednesday) Tusk-Barnier meeting at 18.00 CET

14 February (Thursday) meaningless vote in HoC about idiotic amendments

15 February (Friday) All-Island Civic Dialogue on Brexit in Dublin

11-14 February (Monday to Thursday): plenary session of the European Parliament

15-17 February (Friday to Sunday) Munich Security Conference (Barnier is there)

14-25 February (Thursday to next Monday) UK parliament on holidays quasi-cancelled, but no big votes

18 February (Monday) Brexit secretary Barclay and attorney general Geoffrey Cox meet Barnier in Brussels

18-19 February (Monday to Tuesday) Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US visiting the EU (Brussels)

18-20 February (Monday to Wednesday) Tusk in Ukraine

19 February (Tuesday) Barnier in Madrid, meets PM Pedro Sánchez; Josep Borrell, Minister of Foreign Affairs European Union and Cooperation; meets Committee on European Affairs in the parliament; participates at the Conference CESCE 2019

20 February (Wednesday) PM May meets Juncker and Barnier in Brussels

20 February (Wednesday) regular weekly meeting of the European Commission

Arrow 21 February (Thursday) Corbyn meets Barnier in Brussels; Barclay and Cox meet Barnier too

21 February (Thursday) informal meeting of EU trade ministers in Bucharest, with WTO boss

24-25 February (Sunday and Monday) EU-League of Arab States summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt

11-14 March (Monday to Thursday) plenary session of the European Parliament (last chance to ratify the WA)

19 March (Tuesday) EU27 GAC about Brexit (last chance to ratify the WA)

21-22 March (Thursday and Friday) regular meeting of the European Council (28 PMs/presidents); the last European Council meeting at which the British PM will be present

29 March midnight CET (Friday evening) Brexit

1 April (Monday) first working day after Brexit

15-18 April (Monday to Thursday): last plenary session of the European Parliament in this mandate

23-26 May EU elections

9 May (Victory in Europe day) EU summit in Sibiu, Romania (first EU summit without the UK)

20-21 June EU summit

1 July Finland takes over the Council presidency (from Romania)

2 July (Tuesday) new MEPs sworn in

2-4 July first session of the new European Parliament

July hearings of a candidate for president of the European Commission

17-18 October EU summit

1 November new European Commission
#2
News update (16 January 2019)

Today:
In the UK
* breximess
* vote of no confidence in PM in HoC
In the EU27
* plenary session of the European Parliament: Brexit debate  Exclamation  , future of Europe with Spanish PM Sanchez


The Brexit clock:
  • 2,184 days since Cameron announced the Brexit referendum (the Bloomberg speech, 23 Jan 2013)
  • 1,350 days since the British voters voted for a Tory government which promised a Brexit referendum (7 May 2015)
  • 1,317 days since MPs voted with a large majority for the referendum bill = approval of the referendum (544 to 53 on 9 June 2015)
  • 937 days since the referendum (23 June 2016)
  • 714 days since the MPs voted with a large majority to trigger Article 50 = approval of exit (494 to 122 on 1 Feb 2017)
  • 659 days since the UK triggered Article 50 = start of the legal procedure for exit (29 March 2017)
  • 587 days since the British voters voted with a large majority for the parties supporting Brexit with exit from the customs union and the single market (8 June 2017)
  • 576 days since the start of negotiations (19 June 2017)
  • 404 days since the UK signed the Joint Report including the Irish backstop (8 December 2017)
  • 52 days since endorsement of the WA at the special EU summit (25 November 2018)
  • 16  days since New Year = breaking point (stakeholders need to know with great certainty what will happen on 30 March 2019)
  • 0 days since the meaningless vote in HoC about the WA (15 Jan 2018)
  • 5 days to PM's plan B (21 Jan 2018)
  • 72 days to the exit day (29 March 2019)
  • 127 days to EU elections
Tick, tock ... "I hear no whistling, only the clock ticking." (Barnier on 12 July 2017 = 553 days ago)


Brentertainment:

European Green attacks Jeremy Corbyn for ‘damaging’ Brexit stance (15 Jan 2019)  Big Grin  
‘Labour bears as much responsibility as the Conservatives” for Brexit, says Reinhard Bütikofer.
A senior German MEP said U.K. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has played a "damaging, anti-European, narrow-minded role" in the Brexit "crisis."...
Bütikofer, who said Brexit was "tragic," added that Corbyn's "petty nostalgic socialism" was "ridiculous."
https://www.politico.eu/article/european...it-stance/
Bütikofer's whole statement (in German):
Mays Position ist tragisch, Corbyns ist lächerlich
https://www.reinhardbuetikofer.eu/2019/0...itteilung/


Reality check:

How the Brexit vote was lost (15 Jan 2019)  Exclamation  
A look at Theresa May’s defeat in graphics and charts.
Theresa May's Brexit deal was defeated by 432 votes to 202 — a majority of 230. Scores of her own backbenchers rejected the deal, but she did pick up a handful of opposition votes.
Using POLITICO Pro Intelligence, we've analyzed how the vote was lost.
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-the-...-was-lost/
An interesting analysis of the UK deadlock.

Ball still in UK's court as Brexit deadline looms (16 Jan 2019)  Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation   
by Tony Connelly
EU officials watching the vote last night were expecting a defeat, but they did not expect the sheer scale of what went down.
Throughout the day there was careful co-ordination between capitals and the EU institutions to agree a common line and to try to keep the unity that has been the hallmark of the EU’s negotiating strategy.
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-com...-analysis/
Another great article from Connelly.


In the European Parliament:

Michel Barnier sees high risk of no-deal Brexit (16 Jan 2019)
In European Parliament debate, EU officials implore Britain to decide what it wants.
https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-b...trasbourg/

Brexit  debate at the plenary session of the European Parliament (16 Jan 2019)  Exclamation  
with links to videos
http://debateuncensored.co.uk/showthread.php?tid=264&pid=4553#pid4553


News from EU27:

EU urges UK government to clarify Brexit intentions (15 Jan 2019)  Exclamation  
The bloc vows to step up no-deal preparations.
Responding swiftly to the British parliament's crushing rejection of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, the remaining EU27 countries urged the U.K. government to make clear its next steps as soon as possible.
“We regret the outcome of the vote, and urge the U.K. government to clarify its intentions with respect to its next steps as soon as possible," a spokesman for European Council President Donald Tusk said after consultations Tuesday evening with the 27 heads of state and government.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-urges...ntentions/

Government to intensify preparations for no-deal Brexit (15 Jan 2019)
The Government has said it will intensify preparations for a no-deal Brexit after British MPs overwhelming voted to reject a divorce deal that UK Prime Minister Theresa May had struck with EU leaders.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/011...exit-vote/


On Fantasy Island:

British politics goes over a cliff (16 Jan 2019)
Despite the defeat of historic proportions, the prime minister’s aides intend to resuscitate the Brexit deal.
British politics is broken. It may not be fixable in time to solve the Brexit mess.
The U.K. wakes up Wednesday with a government unable to govern — in office, but without the numbers to fulfill its central purpose: a negotiated exit from the European Union.
https://www.politico.eu/article/british-...exit-vote/

'Brextinct': front pages on Wednesday after May's Brexit vote defeat (16 Jan 2019)
The papers focus on the historic margin of the rejection, while looking ahead to the no-confidence vote

[Image: 2500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma...d824a80a26]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201...ote-defeat

_____________

Last update at 10.15 CET
More coming soon (maybe) ...

Go back to top (important dates, table of contents)
#3
Hi all,

My apolgies for not being here more often, which will hopefully change in the near future.

On January 8, the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant wrote: "British politics has meanwhile succumbed to a nervous breakdown;  little  is to be expected from them anymore. "

This was beautifully illustrated this evening.

You will all remember that in 2017 Barnier repeatedly asked the UK what it wanted, and since no reply ever came, he then drew up his famous staircase to Brexit, arriving at the conclusion that the only trade arrangement that would meet all of the UK's stated red lines, is a Canada style FTA with some extras (a FTA+++). In March 2018, the EU Council subsequently made the UK an offer for a FTA and asked the UK if that is what it wanted.
Some months later, May presented her Chequers deal, which was DOA at the EU as it was a toxic mixture of parts of a FTA with parts of the Single market, so they told May she would have to choose for either one of those two options.
The result was a 36 pages long statement on future trade annexed to the Witdhrawal Agreement, outlining a FTA+++ pretty much in line with the FTA proposal the EU had made in March.

You can compare both texts: Earlier this evening, the UK's MP's  - including Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson etc - rejected May's deal and its annexed framework for a FTA+++ based on the EU's March proposal.

You may wish to sit tight for this one:

Shortly after having rejected May's FTA+++ Brexit deal,
  • Boris Johnson said he had found a way out of the deadlock. He said: "What we need, I think it is quite simple, is a voluntary exit from that backstop element.The unilateral power to come out and to say ‘right we are going to do our own thing and strike a different arrangement’. What we need to do is use the implementation period that runs from March this year, to negotiate a big super Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU." (see this article   in DE)
  • the European Research Group of Brexiteer Conservatives, backed by among others "five ex-ministers and a former Tory whip as well as other senior figures in the party, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Sir Bill Cash" said that instead (!) of May's deal,    "a free trade agreement based on suggestions made by Eurocrat Donald Tusk last year [in March] that Britain could follow the looser trade arrangement Brussels has with Canada, should be presented to the EU" and "they urged the Prime Minister to adopt their alternative plans . " (see this article in DE).
Saying that British politics has succembed to a nervous breakdown does not even begin to describe the above. They have completely lost the plot. They want the FTA they so just rejected (!).

The only difference between what they want and May's deal, is the backstop (which they want to be removed)  and the payments (which they would make conditional to the FTA being concluded). However,
  • The backstop cannot be removed because it would amount to tearing upu the GFA with a treaty.
  • And the money is a settlement of past contracts - this entitles the UK to nothing.
  • Also, it is not possible to demand from the EU that it guarantees that the FTA is concluded by December 2020 (the end of the transition). You cannot tell a country or union that you want to do a FTA with them, but that before negotiations even begin they must sign a legally binding document that the negotitions must be successfully completed by a certain date (!).
PS - this is my simplified summary of May's deal:  
May's deal takes the UK out of the EU on March 29th 2019 with an amicable settlement of the legal and financial consequences of the UK's depature from the EU. This is to be followed by 1 or 2 temporary UK-EU trade agreements until the new FTA+++ (!) as outlined in the 36 pages statement on future trade annexed to the withrawal agreement, enters into force:
  • First, and at the request of the UK (!), a temporary CU+SM trade agreement (post-Brexit transition) so that trade can continue unhindered while the EU and UK negotiate a FTA+++.
  • Because the UK insisted this post-Brexit transition should have a fixed end date of December 2020 (extendable to 2022) irrespective of whether or not the FTA+++ is ready by then, if it isn't ready another temporary trade agreement (a temporary EU-UK customs agreement - NOT membership of the EU's CU - with regulatory provisions for Northern Ireland) needs to kick in to guarantee continued compliance with the Good Friday Agreement until the FTA and/or a technological solution enters into force.
This sequence of events allows for minimal damage to economy and jobs and a smooth transition from your exit to a new FTA. When the FTA enters into force, the UK can do its own trade deals, there is no free movement, the UK has full control of its borders, there is no payment into the EU budget and no ECJ oversight (dispute settlement is by a joint committee).

This is what the UK Parliament rejected. Why? because: 
  • no deal brexiteers reject any deal since they want out without a deal
  • Labour would have rejected any deal, since it wants to try to cause GE which it thinks it can win;
  • "Soft-Brexit" MPs rejected it because instead of the FTA+++, they want a closer trade relationship with the EU, be that a Customs Union or even a Norway+
In my opinion, either we are going to get a no deal brexit, or a Customs Union brexit (that may morph into a Norway+ Brexit during the post-Brexit trade negotiations).
If May survives the confidence vote, a majority will have to be sought in parliament before heading for Brussels again (the witdhrawal agreement won't be renegotiated but the statement on future trade probably will). And if Labour, the Libdems and Remain + "soft Brexit" Tories support a customs union brexit, then the Brexiteers who triumphantly celebrated their victory tonight, will soon come to regret having rejected May's FTA+++ deal.
Alternatively, we will all be faced with a disruptive no deal Brexit instead.
#4
But one option, not mentioned, is to revoke A50.
In the meanwhile an option I hope not to happen. Still, I have no idea how likely this is, in the current political environment of the UK ..
#5
Brexit alert just to remind everyone:  Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation   

The debate about Brexit  at the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg will start shortly - you can watch live here:

http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=2&lang=en


Opening statements 
by Melania CIOT, Romanian Presidency
by Frans TIMMERMANS, First Vice-President of the EC in charge of Better Regulation, Inter-Institutional Relations, the Rule of Law and the Charter of Fundamental Rights and
by Michel BARNIER, Chief Brexit negotiator
Two rounds of political group speakers
Catch the eye
Closing statements 
by Michel BARNIER, Chief Brexit negotiator and 
by Melania CIOT, Romanian Presidency


Followed by debate with the President of the Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón, on the Future of Europe at 10.00 CET.
#6
There was a meeting of the Brexit Steering Group of the European Parliament with Barnier yesterday evening - here is some video footage with short statements from Guy Verhofstadt, Michel Barnier and Elmar Brok:

https://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/pl...ef=I166492
#7
From the European Parliament:

After opening remarks, Barnier got a very long applause from the MEPs.

The EU27 are continuing with the ratification procedure of the WA as it is.

Everyone is asking the Brits to explain what they actually want. And that the Irish backstop is not negotiable. And if the WA were to be opened, the EU27 will make their own demands too.

Open to change the offer a different future relationship if the UK changes its lines - which is what the EU27 have been saying for a very long time and it is also written in the Political Declaration.

The ball is in the UK court - we need a clear credible positive majority about something that the Brits want.

Martina Anderson MEP (Ireland, Sinn Fein) on behalf of the United Left group - preparations of for the border poll (reunification referendum) should be a part of preparations for no-deal preparations.
#8
(16-01-19, 09:01 AM)Ajda Slovenia Wrote: From the European Parliament:

After opening remarks, Barnier got a very long applause from the MEPs.

The EU27 are continuing with the ratification procedure of the WA as it is.

Everyone is asking the Brits to explain what they actually want. And that the Irish backstop is not negotiable. And if the WA were to be opened, the EU27 will make their own demands too.

Open to change the offer a different future relationship if the UK changes its lines - which is what the EU27 have been saying for a very long time and it is also written in the Political Declaration.

The ball is in the UK court - we need a clear credible positive majority about something that the Brits want.

Martina Anderson MEP (Ireland, Sinn Fein) on behalf of the United Left group - preparations of for the border poll (reunification referendum) should be a part of preparations for no-deal preparations.

I hear everywhere about needed extension to A50.. . 
But how should that work if the road to go is not defined  Especially with respect to the EU elections coming. 
we should open a new thread  Maybe
#9
It just occurred to me. Chocking, maiming and mutilating the mother that nourishes her is the only principle of unapologetic kleptomaniac UK.
#10
(16-01-19, 12:33 PM)Mico Wrote: I hear everywhere about needed extension to A50.. . 
But how should that work if the road to go is not defined  Especially with respect to the EU elections coming. 
we should open a new thread  Maybe

It is possible for the Article 50 process to be extended but there are two significant conditions that need to be fulfilled:
1) the British Government must ask for such an extension. It is by no means certain that they would consider doing so even if - perhaps especially if - there seemed to be a groundswell of opinion in favour of doing so.
2) Every single EU Member State would have to agree. Individual States may have their own reasons for not agreeing that we are not aware of.
They would only agree under certain conditions and only if the extended period did not pass the date for the EP elections: no one wants Farage et al in the EP!
There would have to be a reasonable expectation that extending the period could produce a positive result. This effectively means that the UK would have to agree a position with itself that would likely pass the HoC and be acceptable to the EU. This would probably mean a shift in the UK's red lines. I see no way that the EU would agree to an extension until and unless the UK had got its own act in order and knew what it wanted. Extending to give the UK time to get its act together is, I think, out of the question.


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