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Your Brexit Day Prediction on EU-UK relationship
#1
Question 
Ok, what we're missing here is a bit of a game.



Test your Brexit Day Prediction Skills

A.k.a. what, in your prediction, will the UK-EU relationship be on March 30th, 2019 ?


Rules are:
- give your prediction in reply to this thread
- first person with the correct prediction wins (the one with the oldest correct post wins)
- you may change your prediction by adding a new one, thus overriding the old one. When you do the old one becomes invalid. Note that if you do someone may have an earlier same prediction.
- You may not edit an older prediction

Take your pick, or use (12) and write your own.

  1. Checkers: The EU caves and grants the UK a technological NI border without backstop, a transition period and assures it frictionless SM access while outside the SM.
  2. 'ZZZzzz': The A50 period is extended. The show drags on.
  3. 'Oops!': Brexit is canceled and the UK stays on previous terms
  4. 'You got to pay for that': Brexit is canceled and the UK loses one or more perks
  5. 'No you don't': Brexit is canceled but the EU does not accept A50 revocation, thus the UK falls outside the EU treaties into a legal limbo and possibly fighting that at the ECJ.
  6. Norway+CU: Britain stays in the Single Market, a Customs Union, and gets a near 2 year transition period
  7. Canada+NI: Britain signs a withdrawal agreement including a backstop to keep Northern Ireland in the CU+SM, and continues to the transition period to negotiate a Canada style FTA.
  8. 'Corbyn's Union'+NI: Britain agrees to CU+SM backstop for NI, and the UK moves to the transition to negotiate a CU.
  9. Fudge: Somehow the NI border is fudged and shoved into the transition period.
  10. Nearly No deal: No deal with several small deals to keep the UK going, like air travel, medicines and nucleair.
  11. No deal: Britain fall outside the EU treaties without any other arrangements.
  12. Other:  (...describe your prediction..)
Prizes? I have nothing to give on here so it's for fun and honor. Perhaps Ajda can give the winner a forum perk/medal/title.

Bring it on!
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#2
Lord, so difficult. Can we waive our entitlement to a medal and give several answers:

4)
7)
10)

Let's be reasonable:

I vote for 7.
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#3
In the run-up to B-day:
  • EU27 declare no deal in December 2018
  • immediately preparations for referendums about reunification of Ireland start
  • in late February 2019: border polls held on both sides of the Irish border with the following results: in Northern Ireland 65% yes for reunification, in Ireland 70% yes (in RoI yes also means yes to the needed changes of the Irish constitution - it will be a constitutional referendum)


On 29 March 2019 midnight CET:
  • no withdrawal agreement
  • a couple small EU27-UK agreements kick into power (to keep some things running) - the UK will sign on the dotted line in panic shortly before B-day
  • Northern Ireland officially becomes a part of Ireland = 'stays' in the EU
  • the two additional MEP seats which Ireland got due to Brexit will be assigned to Northern Ireland so that Northern Ireland participates in the EU elections in May as an 'autonomous' unit (at the next EU elections in 2024, Ireland will get two more seats to properly account for NI)

PS: If you vote my prediction up, I will share my best-predictor-ever medal with you.  Big Grin
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#4
I'd like to suggest another option:
29th March comes around but the British Government is still too busy arguing with itself to notice until someone turns on the radio and hears something about traffic jams in Kent.
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#5
Quote:PS: If you vote my prediction up, I will share my best-predictor-ever medal with you.  [Image: biggrin.png]

Done! You bribed me.

(but that does not mean you've won Wink  )


On topic: I'll go for option (6)
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#6
Yes, i'm going for an Almost No deal too.
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#7
At  Ajda:

Quote: If you vote my prediction up, I will share my best-predictor-ever medal with you.

Sorry Ajda I'm British - I could only vote for your prediction if you offered me unicorns, a rainbow for them to dance on and pie-in-the-sky for tea... Big Grin

That being said I still think it will be a nearly no deal.
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#8
My crystal ball has gone all hazy....

11
Tunnel closed, planes grounded. Lights out.
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#9
(26-09-18, 10:14 PM)Ajda Slovenia Wrote: In the run-up to B-day:
  • EU27 declare no deal in December 2018
  • immediately preparations for referendums about reunification of Ireland start
  • in late February 2019: border polls held on both sides of the Irish border with the following results: in Northern Ireland 65% yes for reunification, in Ireland 70% yes (in RoI yes also means yes to the needed changes of the Irish constitution - it will be a constitutional referendum)


On 29 March 2019 midnight CET:
  • no withdrawal agreement
  • a couple small EU27-UK agreements kick into power (to keep some things running) - the UK will sign on the dotted line in panic shortly before B-day
  • Northern Ireland officially becomes a part of Ireland = 'stays' in the EU
  • the two additional MEP seats which Ireland got due to Brexit will be assigned to Northern Ireland so that Northern Ireland participates in the EU elections in May as an 'autonomous' unit (at the next EU elections in 2024, Ireland will get two more seats to properly account for NI)

PS: If you vote my prediction up, I will share my best-predictor-ever medal with you.  Big Grin

More like wishful thinking from an unwanted xenophobic interloper than a prediction.
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#10
seconded except for this one irish bit 
Quote:immediately preparations for referendums about reunification of Ireland start

that will start a bit later. and i bookmarked this thread and made a note in my outlook calendar, so i can claim in due time my medal-bits  Big Grin
i believe for reasons of formality, the NI/RoI re-unification process will start later, and methinks it will take some time. subsequently will the seats issue be delayed.

but i would like to learn what you believe scotland will start doing from december onwards - methinks latest next march, they will start trying to sever themselves from the dis-united kingdom. despite not being a key obstacle in present 'negotiations', since we are in the predicting game anyway, scots should not be neglected.
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